3/13 Covid-19 update: What experts think are likely to happen this year // resources for talking to kids
If You Read One Thing:
A group of infectious disease experts spoke on a panel at UCSF - one of the top medical centers in the world - earlier this week about what they think is most likely to happen this year w/Covid-19. Top takeaways below but highly suggest reading the whole thing. Note that they acknowledged the huge #s they're predicting will change based on what we do now. The large % of infected is not a foregone conclusion - coordinated action now can help.
Top Takeaways:
How many in the community already have the virus? No one knows.
We in the US are currently where at where Italy was a week ago. We see nothing to say we will be substantially different.
40-70% of the US population will be infected over the next 12-18 months. After that level you can start to get herd immunity. Unlike flu this is entirely novel to humans, so there is no latent immunity in the global population.
Assume 50% of US population, that’s 160M people infected. With 1% mortality rate that's 1.6M Americans die over the next 12-18 months (50k Americans die of the flu each year)
The death rate varies hugely by age. Over age 80 the mortality rate could be 10-15%
I can only tell you two things definitively. Definitively it’s going to get worse before it gets better. And we'll be dealing with this for the next year at least. Our lives are going to look different for the next year.
We would say “Anyone over 60 stay at home unless it’s critical”. CDC toyed with idea of saying anyone over 60 not travel on commercial airlines.
___
Morning!
Sorry to put such gloomy content in your inbox on a Friday. I'm not sure I'm going to have any friends left when this thing is over -- who wants to hang out with the girl always talking about fatality rates and disease transmission patterns and telling you to stay inside and wash your hands?
But before you unfriend me forever, I put together some FAQs based on questions I've been hearing from people (with the permanent reminder that I'm not a doctor or a scientist and that I'm currently considering getting a Kobe Bryant tattoo so I'll leave it up to you to decide how much you trust me):
FAQs
Should I still be meeting friends/taking my kids to play dates/going to work? I've heard from some of you that the guidance around quarantining is confusing - I agree! It's hard to know what level of precaution to take given the current information we have, but here's what I'm telling my family in the greater Seattle area (this would change depending on infection rates where you live) - If you're young/healthy, this is very likely just going to feel like a mild illness. If we can assume half of Americans are going to get this in the next year, my priority isn't really keeping myself from getting it. But my priority is keeping old/sick people from getting it (#flattenthecurve). I have enough Catholic guilt without feeling directly responsible for someone dying, and the only chance our hospitals have of not being completely overwhelmed in the next few weeks is slowing down the spread of this. So ask yourself, are you SURE you don't have Covid (like the experts above said, at this point we don't really know who has it and who doesn't; and people are contagious before they show symptoms)? Are you SURE the people you're going to be around aren't immunocompromised? Are you SURE the people they're going to see later aren't immunocompromised? It's really hard to definitively answer yes to any of those questions - which means I'm mostly staying inside/practicing real social distancing (I still need to get better at it - I met friends for coffee yesterday and probably shouldn't have) and telling everyone I know to do the same. I recognize this is luxury - a lot of people have to go to work/can't work from home/don't have people to get groceries for them, etc. So if you do have those privileges, don't take them for granted.
Should I be traveling? Similar to the question above. Are you sure you're not infected? Are you sure no one on the plane is going to be susceptible to getting the disease from you? Are you prepared to potentially get stuck wherever you go? "The leading U.S. expert on infectious diseases, Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, said that it was possible that regional lockdowns could become necessary and recommended that those at greatest risk — the elderly and those with underlying health conditions — abstain from travel.
Should I be prepared with extra food and supplies? Yes, because what if you or a family member has to unexpectedly quarantine? Have extra food, prescription medicines, entertainment, and whatever you usually makes you feel better when you have the flu.
What should I do if I start feeling sick/showing symptoms of coronavirus? Here's a video of an ER doctor answering those questions.
Why is the US so far behind other countries in its response/ability to test? Two reasons: 1) In 2018 the Trump Administration cut funding for public health/epidemic preparedness (at the time, the former CDC Director said that "the move "would significantly increase the chance an epidemic will spread without our knowledge and endanger lives in our country and around the world." 2)At the beginning of the outbreak, the US opted not to use a test developed by the WHO, instead using one the CDC developed. But that test was faulty, and we're very behind in manufacturing tests. (You can read more here: "Our response is much, much worse than almost any other country that's been affected," Ashish Jha, the head of Harvard Global Health Institute, said of the U.S. efforts to combat coronavirus. He used "fiasco" and "mind-blowing" to describe how bad it is.
How do I talk to my kids about this/what do I do with them if we're stuck at home indefinitely? You're asking the wrong person that question! I don't even know how I'm going to manage being stuck at home with my 3-legged cat and I'm pretty sure Love Is Blind isn't appropriate for 5 year olds! But my brilliant friend Jess is a licensed counselor and expert on chlidhood development and trauma (and play therapy!) put together some awesome resources for the clients/families she works with that I'm attaching here. She also recommends this webinar on how to talk to your kids about what's going on right now: https://pepparentonline.org/courses/enrolled/797294
Last thing before I leave you with a poem that helped me get through this week. Please feel free to keep forwarding these emails or sending me email addresses to sign people up. I'm also going to start posting this newsletter on substack so that it makes it easier for people to subscribe to it and go back and find information. Feel free to direct people to this link if they want to sign up to get this: https://coronavirus19.substack.com/ (I'm going to keep sending it to this group via gmail because sometimes substack gets sent to spam folders and I want to stay in touch with you for as long as possible before you all decide to block me for being such a Debbie Downer ).
Covid-19 Poem of the Week:
As neighbors, and cities, and countries,we might have lost our way for a little while and forgotten how to take care of each other. But I think there are going to be some really inspiring stories in the next few weeks about people rising to the occasion, reconnecting with their sense of compassion and commitment to the greater good, and showing up for each other. That's what I think of when I read this poem.
Life is short, though I keep this from my children.
Life is short, and I’ve shortened mine
in a thousand delicious, ill-advised ways,
a thousand deliciously ill-advised ways
I’ll keep from my children. The world is at least
fifty percent terrible, and that’s a conservative
estimate, though I keep this from my children.
For every bird there is a stone thrown at a bird.
For every loved child, a child broken, bagged,
sunk in a lake. Life is short and the world
is at least half terrible, and for every kind
stranger, there is one who would break you,
though I keep this from my children. I am trying
to sell them the world. Any decent realtor,
walking you through a real shithole, chirps on
about good bones: This place could be beautiful,
right? You could make this place beautiful.
Stay safe! Sending love!