3/15 Covid-19 Update: May we who are merely inconvenienced remember those whose lives are at stake
Morning all,
For those of you new to this email, let me quickly pause and introduce myself. I’m Alison, and a month ago I didn’t really anticipate that I’d be writing doomsday pandemic emails in my spare time, but life has taken unexpected turns for all of us in the last few weeks. I live in Seattle and work in global health/development – but am NOT a doctor or scientist (lol – not something I ever thought I’d have to clarify ). But I do have the privilege of knowing some incredibly smart doctors/scientists/public health experts who have the kinds of brains that can make sense of what’s going on in the world right now, and it feels important to me to try to get out good/credible information to people I care about. That’s the motivation for writing this.
I’ve become a bit of a broken record recently about the need to take what’s happening really seriously, the need to be prepared, and the need to recognize that the actions we all take today can have life or death implications for people around us. These are my greatest hits:
Covid is much deadlier than the typical flu, and in the US, the disease is spreading really quickly. Most of the people who have it don’t know they have it because a)we’re unable to test for it and b)you can have it for several days before you show any symptoms (and if you’re young/healthy – you might not ever show symptoms at all).
If you’re out in public right now, you are potentially spreading this disease to other people.
The more people who get this disease in a short amount of time, the more our health care systems are going to be completely overwhelmed. Parts of the US are still on a trajectory to be like Italy, and in Italy today, their hospitals are completely over capacity, doctors and nurses are comparing it to a world war, and people are dying in ER waiting rooms without ever being seen.
This disease is killing old/sick people at way higher rates than young/healthy people (chart below). People are dying in hospital waiting rooms not just because they have covid, but because they’re having heart attacks, or they’re going into diabetic shock, or they need emergency surgery, and they can’t get the treatment they need because the hospitals are overwhelmed. So if you know people in any of those categories (old/sick/might get sick) and want to help them live (and you are able to stay home) – stay home and slow this disease down.
I was driving through Seattle last night and was appalled at the number of people out at bars and restaurants, and it just seemed like these messages bear repeating. (For those of you who live in Seattle, I think you’ll appreciate this – I was driving past China Harbor at 10pm and there was a line of Uber SUVs out front dropping people off --- and I just started screaming in my car, “YOU’RE WILLING TO KILL PEOPLE TO GO TO CHINA HARBOR?!?”
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I’m not sure there’s been any time in the last few weeks when I haven’t been thinking about covid. With my job, and living in Seattle, it’s just unavoidable. It’s in my dreams. And I can tell today that I need a bit of a break from it. So I’m going to try to unplug, but first I wanted to send something a bit more personal. I was thinking last night about some of the lessons I’ve learned recently, and am sending them along in case they’re helpful to anyone else:
Listen to the experts: Our TVs and twitter feeds and grocery stores are full of people who have opinions about Covid right now. Seek out sources of information that are based on fact; not opinion. Find a few trusted sources that are calmly relaying information. Look at their track record. Have they been right about things so far? Are they basing their analysis (not opinion) on data? Are they pointing you to data sources that seem credible?
Be willing to look silly: It seems like every day I’m pleading with you all to be wiling to risk embarrassment and listen to your gut. I’ve been trying to follow that same advice myself, and I know it isn’t easy. When it became clear to me a few weeks ago what we were actually up against, I didn’t email everyone I knew sounding the alarm. I started out texting my family telling them to stock up on supplies. And then I emailed my close friends. And now I’m writing this. And at every point, I’ve thought – these people are going to think that I’m crazy. And I don’t want people to think that I’m crazy (even if you’re reading this now and I’ve never met you!). People’s opinion of us matters. But I’m so glad I didn’t listen to those voices telling me to be quiet – I’m glad I’ve had my mom and grandma quarantined for the last few weeks, even though it’s been hard. I wouldn’t’ be able to live with myself if something happened to someone I loved and I could have spoken up and potentially made a difference. Even if I feel silly doing it.
Repeat to yourself what you know: I was talking to my aunt yesterday and could hear the words I was saying – about how bad this might get, and how scary it is, and how worried I am for the older people I care about. And even with everything I know from work, I still wondered if I was overreacting. When those moments happen, I find it really helpful to repeat to myself what I absolutely know – what the facts are. The facts are that schools in Washington are shut down for a minimum of six weeks. All sports and public events have been cancelled. All flights from Europe to the US have been suspended. There are 20% more cases in Italy today than there were yesterday. Really smart people have gone on the record saying this could kill over 100M people around the world if we don’t act now. Saying those things out loud to myself make me less afraid that I’m overreacting.
Ask yourself what you’re willing to have on your conscience: The data is telling us that unless we all change our behaviors now, a large # of old people are going to die. I keep thinking back to when the AIDS epidemic was starting, and all the many misconceptions about how it was transmitted, who was at risk, etc. There were people who wouldn’t shake hands with a gay person because they didn’t want to contract the disease. Meanwhile – millions of people were dying. Babies in Africa, and sex workers, and gay men. Lives that, at the time, the world was just willing to say didn’t matter very much. Are we willing to say the same thing about old/sick people right now? Because that’s the choice we’re being presented with. If you’re young and healthy – your odds of dying from this are the same as the dying from the normal flu… miniscule. But your grandpa who is over 80? If he gets this, his chances of dying are 18%. Your parents in their 60s? 5%. I don’t listen to podcasts – but thought this quote from The Daily this week was the best explanation I’ve seen (thanks, Tyler/Ilse):
Q: There’s a strong sense that very young people and people in their teens, 20s, early 30s, are at a much lower risk level for the coronavirus. And I think that’s been borne out. Correct me if I’m wrong. So do all the recommendations that we keep hearing apply as stringently to the young?
A: Yes, unless you’re totally selfish.Do you have a parent? Do you have a grandparent? Do you want to be the vector that carries that disease to them? Do you know anybody and love anybody who’s older and might be frail? You don’t want your last memory of that person —being that you gave them the virus that killed them. You’ll kick yourself for the rest of your life if you did that.
Ask for help/People can't read your mind: If you're frightened, or need help with an errand, or don't know what to do - don't assume that people know you're feeling that way. You're going to have to be brave and ask for help. It's not easy, but your friends/family will be glad that you did. Give the people who care about you a chance to show up for you. __
Covid-19 Prayer:
My favorite professor in college was a guy named Peter Walshe. He was born in South Africa in the 1930s, a Christian socialist, and a leader in the anti-apartheid movement. He talked frequently about how his vision of Christianity was to cast out wider and wider nets of community. I thought of him when I saw this prayer on twitter last night:
May we who are merely inconvenienced
Remember those whose lives are at stake.
May we who have no risk factors
Remember those most vulnerable.
May those who have the luxury of working from home
Remember those who must choose between preserving their health or making their rent.
May we who have the flexibility to care for our children when their schools close
Remember those who have no options
May we who have to cancel our trips
Remember those that have no safe place to go
May we who are losing our margin money in the tumult of the economic market
Remember those who have no margin at all.
May we who settle in for a quarantine at home
Remember those who have no home.
As fear grips our country, let us choose love.
During this time when we cannot physically wrap our arms around each other, let us find ways to be the loving embrace to our neighbors.
Sending you all a loving, socially distant, embrace today. Take good care.
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